Quotables

Tihomir Bezlov, a security expert at the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy said the weapons exports made Bulgaria a natural target for Russian “wet operations” or violent sabotage. “Those exports of Soviet-type munitions have now become critical for the war,” he said.

The Copelouzos empire has long-standing business links to Russia. For over 30 years it has been a 50/50 partner in Prometheus, a joint venture with Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled gas giant, which currently provides Greece with around a third of its natural gas. Mr Copelouzos is “one of the few Greek entrepreneurs who have developed business activities in Russia, especially in the field of infrastructure,” according to a report in 2020 by the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD), an independent think-tank.

“There is a lot of ambition,” said Ognian Shentov, chairman of the Centre for the Study of Democracy, a Sofia-based think tank. “A lot of anti-corruption ambition. And that was part of the electoral appeal. But they should have done more if they had been more systematic and not had unrealistic goals.” 

“This war is a big nail in the coffin of our enchantment with Russia,” said Ruslan Stefanov, program director for the Center for the Study of Democracy, a research organization in Sofia. “They have been very successful in totally turning people off Russia,”

"Given Bulgaria's excessive dependence on Russian gas, the halting of gas imports poses a serious challenge to the security of supply to the country," said Martin Vladimirov with Sofia-based think-tank Center for the Study of the Democracy.

"A cut to the deliveries to non-essential groups of consumers including the heavy industry cannot be ruled out," he said.

Vladimirov said Sofia should start immediate talks in cooperation with Greece with alternative LNG suppliers such as Qatar, Algeria and the United States to ensure the country's gas needs and negotiate an increase of Azeri gas imports.

“The Russian war against Ukraine has provoked a general public outcry against Putin's tactics,” said Martin Vladimirov, senior Russia analyst at the Sofia-based think tank Center for the Study of Democracy.

The change is “despite heavy Russian propaganda in mainstream media channeled by informal pro-Russian political, civil society and economic networks.”

“But when you see bombs falling on residential buildings in real time, there is little room to denying reality,” Mr. Vladimirov said.

Ognian Shentov, Chairman of the Center for the Study of Democracy, thinks Bulgaria's failure to reform the judiciary and clean up corruption should be seen as a greater European failure, as the same signs are being seen, at least in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

According to him, there has been a “state capture” in Bulgaria, in which the interplay of oligarchs, politicians and justice and security authorities makes society vulnerable to foreign actors as well.

The study -- published by the Bulgarian-based Center for the Study of Democracy on September 9 -- says Beijing’s growing economic footprint in Central and Eastern Europe over the last decade has coincided with a drop in legal and governance standards and raises concerns about the environment and rising debt levels in the region.

The report is the first wide-ranging study of China’s expanding presence in Central and Eastern Europe, which has seen Beijing become the region’s largest trading partner.

"Russia transports the gas, builds the pipeline and finances it through bogus companies that obscure the real background of the money flows," wrote the Sofia-based Center for Democracy Studies (CSD) in an analysis. With the deliveries and long-term contracts, Gazprom is also clogging the market in Southeastern Europe and making access more difficult for other suppliers, says Ruslan Stefanov from the CSD.

The Bulgarian think tank CSD noted as early as 2016 that the preference given to well-connected individuals in public procurement contracts has been widespread.