Quotables

"Russia was earning around $6.5 billion annually from the Ukrainian transit, which is roughly a third of its total gas earnings from sales to Europe. It will be very difficult for Russia to reroute this gas to new destinations, which will significantly hit the state-owned company, Gazprom, a major taxpayer for the Russian economy."

"The leverage of economic dependence that Putin long held in his hand is no longer quite so strong. Therefore, the Kremlin is now focussing on a more ideological and value-based influence strategy."

"If the next American administration wants to achieve ‘peace through strength’, there needs to be a transatlantic push to toughen the enforcement of the G7 oil ban and phase out Russian fossil fuels from Western markets."

"Czechia could secure normal supplies of non-Russian crude oil by taking advantage of the spare capacity on the Trans-Alpine pipeline bringing oil from the Italian port of Trieste, the Adria pipeline connecting to Druzhba in Slovakia and by increasing refined products imports and petroleum stocks withdrawals.”

"They [Hungary and Slovakia] have been actually benefitting directly economically from their close proximity to the Ukrainian market reselling cheap Russian energy sources at a huge premium,” he said, all “while withholding supply of weapons and while also being trojan horses for Russia in Europe."

“Turkey has emerged as a strategic pit stop for Russian fuel products rerouted to the EU, generating hundreds of millions in tax revenues for the Kremlin's war chest”

"Lukoil has been able to translate its economic footprint into outsized political leverage by financing media and parties. Its influence over the Bulgarian political and economic elite is enormous."

"Following the invasion of Ukraine, it became evident that Russian proxies had been activated, with several influential outlets, book publishers, and social media players reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative in Bulgaria. As the initial shock of the invasion dissipates, there is a chance for Russia to regain its foothold in the country."

“Lukoil has very good lobbies ... they have enablers in Brussels and across Europe,” said Martin Vladimirov, senior energy researcher at Bulgaria’s Center for the Study of Democracy think tank. “They have convinced European policymakers that Lukoil is supporting Ukraine and the management of Lukoil is against the war.”

“We need one policy instrument to name and shame countries to track progress on the EU objectives”. This instrument does not exist right now, explained Vladimirov, allowing countries to hide behind other EU players and continue bad practices.