Quotables

According to the new findings from the influential Center for the Study of Democracy think tank, set to be unveiled Tuesday in Washington, European countries have become more exposed to energy price shocks, with indicators surging more than fivefold in the past three years.

"A year after Draghi called for stronger EU energy markets, our data shows affordability risks remain high, with retail prices still 40–70 percent above pre-crisis levels in much of Central and Eastern Europe,” said Martin Vladimirov, one of the report’s authors.

Martin Vladimirov, energy expert from the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) in Sofia, does not see a peace deal between Trump and Russia coming, which will include the restart of Nord Stream 2: "I think that is an illusion that especially the Trump family believes in the U.S. Russia uses the speculation for a potential agreement with the U.S. on Nord Stream 2 as a diversion strategy to deepen the confusion and division in Europe on the question of the future of Russian gas", he said. 

"Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, Bulgaria — they're going to produce a very nice plan where they'll put some milestones and targets," said Martin Vladimirov, director of energy and geoeconomics at the Center for the Study of Democracy. "But ultimately their politicians will insist it is too risky for their security of supply and ignore the plan, just as they have done with other plans on the phaseout of coal or on renewables."

In the meantime, he added, "Russia is gaining billions."

Both sides [Russia and Ukraine] have a vested interest in seeing an end to the destruction of their energy infrastructure. For Moscow, it's a question of protecting revenues from its oil and gas industry, whose exports are essential to the Kremlin's coffers. And for Kyiv, preserving the power grid that has been severely damaged by repeated Russian strikes since the 2022 invasion, is essential to keep the military industry humming. It's a win-win situation, but Ukraine is still much more vulnerable than Russia on the energy front.

Russian fertiliser exports to the EU surged by over 33% in 2024 alone, reaching 6.2 million tonnes worth over €2.2 billion. This trade, exempt from sanctions, generated an estimated €550 million in tax revenue for the Russian state. Poland, by far the biggest buyer of Russian fertilizers, saw purchases more than double in 2024.

Disinformation campaigns and the targeted support of radical fringe parties are two dimensions in which the Kremlin regime is trying to influence politics and society in Germany in order to achieve its goals. In its most recent study the liberal Friedrich Naumann Foundation and the Center for the Study of Democracy have just taken up a possible third dimension. In "Networks of Power", three analysts from CSD examine the Russian "shadow influence" in Germany.

"Russia was earning around $6.5 billion annually from the Ukrainian transit, which is roughly a third of its total gas earnings from sales to Europe. It will be very difficult for Russia to reroute this gas to new destinations, which will significantly hit the state-owned company, Gazprom, a major taxpayer for the Russian economy."

"The leverage of economic dependence that Putin long held in his hand is no longer quite so strong. Therefore, the Kremlin is now focussing on a more ideological and value-based influence strategy."

"If the next American administration wants to achieve ‘peace through strength’, there needs to be a transatlantic push to toughen the enforcement of the G7 oil ban and phase out Russian fossil fuels from Western markets."

"Czechia could secure normal supplies of non-Russian crude oil by taking advantage of the spare capacity on the Trans-Alpine pipeline bringing oil from the Italian port of Trieste, the Adria pipeline connecting to Druzhba in Slovakia and by increasing refined products imports and petroleum stocks withdrawals.”