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The Future of Natural Gas in Southeast Europe

Diversification and Phaseout after the Russian Invasion in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed Europe’s energy and climate security vulnerabilities. It exacerbated the energy crisis caused by the gas supply deficits on global markets since 2021. Countries in Southeast Europe (SEE) are particularly vulnerable to energy and climate security risks due to their excessive dependence on Russian oil and gas imports. Regional governments have been too slow to update their long-term energy policy frameworks in line with the EU’s much more ambitious REPowerEU targets. The SEE region will have to transform its energy sector over the next decade by gradually phasing out fossil fuels and by investing heavily in renewables.

This report reveals how gas demand reduction policies can alleviate Southeast Europe's vulnerability to Russia's blackmail and contribute to stronger energy and climate security, by assessing in detail three different scenarios for the natural gas supply security position of Bulgaria, Romania, and Greece by 2030, as well as long-term policy pathways for the phaseout of natural gas from the countries’ economies by the end of the decade.

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