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Strategic Decoupling: Phasing Out Russian Economic Influence in Germany

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine upended European peace and security and intensified global power competition. The Kremlin overturned decades of accommodating German Ostpolitik as it chose to weaponize Germany and Europe’s decision to opt for Russian gas as a transition fuel for achieving green transformation. Russia’s most potent tool in this global rivalry has been state capture – the use of military or law enforcement coercion to weaponize state, oligarchic or private sector economic resources for achieving foreign policy goals.

The following report is an assessment of the magnitude of Russia’s direct and indirect economic footprint in Germany, with a focus on energy-intensive industries, which form the backbone of the country’s economic might. The assessment of the Russian economic influence in Germany has shown that the long-term dependence on Russian fossil fuel has also contributed to the entrenching of powerful corporate networks of influence linked to Russian oligarchic and/or state-owned companies, which the Kremlin can use to sway specific German decisions. Decoupling and/or de-risking from the corrosive impact of this state capture model is paramount for democratic Europe’s economic security.

You can read the full report here. 


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