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SEERMAP Bulgaria Country Report

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The South East Europe Electricity Roadmap (SEERMAP) develops three electricity sector scenarios until 2050 for the South East Europe region. The project focuses on 9 countries in South East Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. The implications of different investment strategies in the electricity sector are assessed for affordability, energy security, sustainability and security of supply.

The Bulgarian report summarizes the main findings for the development of the electricity sector in the country until 2050. Some of the main findings focus on the strategies for decarbonizing electricity supply until 2050. Regardless of whether or not Bulgaria pursues an active policy to decarbonise its electricity sector a significant shift away from fossil fuels to renewables will take place. Due to aging power plants Bulgaria will need to replace approximately 97% of its existing conventional generation fleet by 2050. Natural gas plays a transitional role on the path towards low carbon generation in the ‘delayed’ and ‘decarbonisation’ scenarios. However in the ‘no target’ scenario its capacity triples compared to the present level, and generates more than 10 times more electricity than today in 2040. By 2050, the ‘decarbonisation’ scenario demonstrates that it is technically feasible and financially viable for Bulgaria to reach 96.7% emission reduction with its abundant RES resources and nuclear generation. Decarbonisation does not drive up wholesale prices relative to other scenarios with less ambitious RES policies and actually reduces them after 2045. The high penetration of RES in all scenarios suggests that a robust no-regret action for Bulgaria energy policy is to focus on enabling RES integration. This involves the improvement of the regulatory framework to ease investments in new RES capacity and robust state support for new renewable energy facilities financed by the sale of CO2 emission quotas.

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