Bulgaria’s energy system is at a crossroads. The modelling analysis in this report compares a baseline scenario of delayed reforms and continued fossil fuel dependence with a Fit-for-2040 pathway aligned with the EU’s target of a 90% emissions reduction by 2040 and climate neutrality by 2050. The results show that incremental change – prolonged coal use and insufficient action in transport, buildings, and industry – will leave Bulgaria exposed to volatile fossil fuel imports, rising carbon costs, and declining competitiveness. In contrast, the Fit-for-2040 scenario demonstrates that early coal exit, rapid expansion of renewables and storage, deep electrification of end-use sectors, and decisive improvements in efficiency can deliver both decarbonisation and long-term economic resilience.
The report argues that Bulgaria’s low-carbon transition is not a burden but a pathway to preserving energy security and industrial competitiveness. A comprehensive set of policy reforms is needed: completing electricity market liberalisation while protecting vulnerable households, investing in digitalised grids and decentralised renewables, linking energy poverty programmes to clean heating and renovations, and supporting industry through carbon contracts for difference and integration into European clean-tech supply chains. The findings underscore that ambition pays off – with lower system costs, stronger energy security, and new opportunities for Bulgarian industry – while delay only deepens vulnerabilities and postpones the inevitable.
