Hungary’s continued dependence on Russian crude oil is not driven by technical, infrastructural, or economic constraints, but by deliberate political and commercial choices that undermine EU sanctions and energy security. Despite having full access to alternative supply routes and refineries capable of processing non-Russian crude, Hungary has deepened its reliance on Russian oil since receiving an EU derogation in 2022, with Russian crude accounting for over 90% of imports by 2025.

The report shows that claims about prohibitive diversification costs are unfounded, while Hungary’s largest refiner, MOL, has financially benefited from discounted Russian oil, generating substantial revenues for the Kremlin without lowering fuel prices for consumers. By entrenching long-term contractual and infrastructural ties to Russian suppliers and leveraging its dependence in EU decision-making, Hungary has transformed a temporary exemption into a strategic liability. The findings demonstrate that a rapid phaseout of Russian oil is both feasible and economically viable, and that ending Hungary’s exemption is essential to restore the credibility and effectiveness of the EU’s sanctions regime.