Amid rising geopolitical tensions, Latin America is emerging as a key arena for competition among global powers. Following the unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West against Russia, the Kremlin has sought to exert greater influence through economic dependencies, hybrid warfare tactics, and disinformation campaigns across Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
These efforts aim to expand its strategic reach and shape regional narratives in its favor. Mexico, alongside other countries in the region such as Cuba and Nicaragua, has become a primary target of Russia’s renewed strategy to secure disproportionate political influence.
These are some of the main findings of the latest Kremlin Playbook assessments of the Russian economic and political influence in Mexico and Central America, launched during an expert discussion The New Breaking Point: The Kremlin Playbook in Latin America in Mexico City on 10 September 2025, co-organized by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF).
The panel discussion featured key governance and foreign influence experts from GAPAC (Mexico), Expediente Abierto (Nicaragua), and University ICESI (Colombia). In addition, the dialog brought together academics, NGO leaders and journalists from major media outlets in Mexico and across Latin America to examine the evolution of Russian tactics and the structural vulnerabilities that allow both internal and external actors to capture strategic sectors.
Speakers underscored that Russia’s strategy in Latin America is increasingly reinforced through its alignment with China, as both powers seek to expand authoritarian influence across the region. While Russia’s direct economic footprint remains relatively modest, it is highly concentrated in a few strategic sectors where the risks of corruption and state capture are particularly acute. This leverage is amplified by sophisticated disinformation campaigns that shape public discourse on issues such as the war in Ukraine and anti-American narratives. Participants also highlighted the role of academic exchanges as a channel for cultivating influence, and drew attention to the often-overlooked importance of informal networks — from intelligence operatives to cyber companies engaged in espionage — which embed Russian influence within key business and political circles.
The session also included a specialized discussion, a strategic foresight mapping session, where participants engaged in an interactive conversation that helped build a shared analytical basis on the main challenges related to state capture vulnerabilities in Mexico, the mechanisms through which they emerge and evolve, as well as possible public policy recommendations to confront this threat to democratic governance.
