Southeast Europe, where Russia and Communist China have long sought to strengthen their foothold and expand their malign influence on the Continent, is a test case for a Russia-free, resilient European energy future. The region is becoming the gateway for liquefied natural gas imports from the United States, which could fully replace Russian gas by 2027. The region is also a major hub for US investment in next-generation clean energy technologies. With expanding artificial intelligence-driven data centers and innovation partnerships, Southeast Europe is making important contributions to European resilience and transatlantic ties.
The Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) examined these dynamics and their implications for Europe in its newly released report, which applies the Energy and Climate Security Risk Index (ECSRI) to assess vulnerabilities across EU member states through indicators of geopolitics, affordability, reliability, and sustainability. CSD’s report was the center of discussion during a policy panel event in Washington, D.C. on September 9th, 2025. The panel, moderated by Matthew Boyse, Senior Fellow at Hudson’s Center on Europe and Eurasia, featured Bulgarian Minister of Energy, Zhecho Stankov, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, Dr. Robert D. Atkinson, and leading CSD analysts, Ruslan Stefanov, Program Director of CSD, and Marius Koeppen, Analyst in the Climate & Energy and Geoeconomics Programs.
Mr. Koppen presented the results of the ECSRI, highlighting that affordability remains the main risk, which decreases the EU’s competitiveness on a global scale. To combat this risk, the EU should complete the phaseout of Russian energy, focus on long-term EU agreements on alternative supply from allied countries, and expand technical assistance and capacity building for member states to better implement sanctions and green innovation pledges. Additionally, increasing the interconnectedness and flexibility of grids across the EU will help to stabilize affordability risks and combat rising energy prices, which can impede progress in decoupling from Russian energy.
Mr. Stankov noted Bulgaria’s bold approach to ensuring the country is completely independent from Russian energy, which can be used as a blueprint for the EU as a whole in capacity building. Bulgaria is actively working with the US Administration on increasing nuclear power in the country and is collaborating on sharing technologies such as small modular reactors (SMR). Mr. Stankov highlighted how increased US-EU collaboration is necessary to ensure Europe becomes completely independent from Russian energy. Decreasing EU purchases of Russian energy has the potential to change Kremlin’s calculus in its war against Ukraine and increase the EU’s energy security.
Dr. Atkinson and Mr. Stefanov underscored the need for the EU and the US to act together as allies and to stop treating each other as opponents in geoeconomics matters. One critical area of needed investment for Europe to withstand the Kremlin’s attack on its fundamental values is to focus on increasing investment in renewables yet make sure it has abundant supply of nuclear and gas energy sourced from friendly nations.
CSD’s ECSRI results underscore that Europe’s energy transition has entered a decisive phase, where the EU has demonstrated resilience in cutting its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, but systemic risks persist across competitiveness, affordability, governance, and supply chain security. At the same time, new dependencies in critical raw materials, battery technologies, and LNG threaten to replace old vulnerabilities with new ones. The ECSRI highlights both the scale of progress achieved and the urgent need for coordinated reforms that rebuild competitiveness, modernize infrastructure, strengthen institutions, and secure sustainable supply chains as the foundation of Europe’s strategic autonomy.
