Germany finds itself navigating an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment marked by mounting internal and external pressures. The domestic political instability and the decisive re-election of Donald Trump for president of the U.S. could strain transatlantic ties and diminish the resolve and cohesion of the political response to authoritarian threats in Europe, further complicating Germany’s strategic choices. These global seismic shifts take place against the backdrop of still active Russian influence operations that continue to exploit structural and political vulnerabilities within Germany.
The Russian informal networks of influence in Germany have remained active even after the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, the repetition of narratives such as that Ukraine cannot win the war and should return to the negotiating table “to end the suffering of its own people” and avert a wider escalation in Europe has continued to gain ground in the German public discourse. German political and public opinion leaders have not come out strong enough against such narratives, which ignore the fact that Russia is the aggressor state, which wants to force its terms on Ukraine and Europe, and which exploit people’s inherent desire for peace to weaken German support and solidarity with Ukraine.
These are some of the main conclusions from the discussion during an expert workshop discussion of the main findings from CSD’s latest report on Networks of Power: Russia’s Shadow Influence in Germany, held in Berlin on 13 December, 2024, co-organized by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. CSD experts were joined by David Schraven, Founder and Publisher of the German investigative reporting outlet Correctiv and Teresa Widlok, Head of Global Issues Department at the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. Mr. Schraven stressed that the influence of the Russian informal networks has grown significantly over the years and now goes beyond the dissemination of propaganda and disinformation and into the organization of direct sabotage activities with increasingly malign impact over the resilience of key national security institutions.
The discussion centered around how despite the unprecedented sanctions imposed against Russia, German-Russian political and economic networks continue to operate, often circumventing the Western trade and financial restrictions through the redirection of trade via Central Asia and Turkey. This has allowed the flow of dual-use goods to Russia, ultimately supporting the Kremlin’s war aims.
It was highlighted that Russian disinformation narratives about the need of "peace plans" involving the Kremlin and the criticism of Germany's military support for Ukraine have captured the public debates, bolstering the electoral performance of pro-Russian parties such as the Sahra Wagenknecht BSW alliance and the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Both parties have promoted foreign policy issues aligned with Russia’s key geostrategic interests.
