The ousting of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela may mark the beginning of a broader U.S. attempt to realign Latin America geoeconomically, limiting the ability of Russia and China to project power in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. could begin to roll back the region's growing alignment with Russia and China, but only if coercion is matched with credible economic incentives for countries to shift course.

Against this backdrop, on 3 February 2026 the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), in partnership with Transparencia Venezuela, convened an online democracy and defense dialogue bringing together key U.S., EU and Latin American geopolitical and governance experts. The discussion examined how a post-Maduro transition could reshape U.S. and European engagement in a more contested and fragmented regional landscape.

Why It Matters

For over a decade, Latin America has become an increasingly permissive environment for authoritarian influence, state capture, and sanctions evasion. As Western attention shifted elsewhere, Russia and China expanded their footprint through asymmetric investment deals, control over strategic sectors, and political leverage embedded in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and critical raw materials.

Key Insights from the Discussion

• The removal of Maduro does not automatically constitute a structural break; its long-term significance depends on whether institutional rebuilding and democratic transition follow.
• Economic sovereignty has emerged as a central pillar of regional security, extending beyond borders to include control over energy, finance, and strategic resources.
• Russia and China have leveraged periods of Western disengagement to lock countries into long-term asymmetric arrangements, including debt-for-resource deals.
• Energy markets across the Americas are already adjusting, with potential disruptions to oil flows and a reconfiguration of supplier relationships.
• The development of critical raw materials deposits remains highly exposed to state capture through long-term asymmetric deals under the control of Russian and Chinese state-owned enterprises.
• The disruption of authoritarian influence requires a profound governance reform, credible investment frameworks, and robust sanctions enforcement mechanisms.

Selected Speakers’ Perspectives

Carrie Filipetti, Executive Director of the Vandenberg Coalition, emphasized that while the U.S. intervention signaled renewed U.S. willingness to act, democratic transition cannot be assumed. She argued that sovereignty must be understood not only territorially, but economically, i.e. by protecting states from being subsumed by adversarial influence. Without functioning institutions and rule of law, Western investment and economic development will not follow.

Martin Vladimirov, Director of CSD's Geoeconomics Program, framed Venezuela as a potential “first domino” in a broader regional reset. He highlighted how the U.S. and EU lost access to decision-making processes across Latin America, enabling China’s rise as the dominant economic partner. Vladimirov underscored the risks of repeating past mistakes: liberalizing strategic sectors without governance safeguards can accelerate corruption rather than modernization. Drawing on examples from Eastern Europe, he argued that transitional management of strategic assets, particularly in the energy sector, will be critical to preventing re-capture by oligarchic or authoritarian actors.

Christi Rangel, Regional Coordinator of the Transparencia Venezuela, placed the crisis in a global context, arguing that the intervention exposed a deeper failure of the international system to confront kleptocracy and organized crime operating under the shield of sovereignty. She cautioned against conflating external pressure with genuine transition, noting that real change requires restored institutions, free and competitive elections, and constitutional guarantees. While Russia’s engagement in Venezuela is diminishing due to its focus on Ukraine, China remains deeply embedded as a principal trading partner and creditor, posing long-term governance challenges.

Leadership and the Transition Question

A key thread in the discussion focused on the role of democratic leadership, such as the one of Maria Corina Machado, in shaping a credible transition. Panelists highlighted the unprecedented unification of Venezuela’s fragmented opposition and the emergence of a clear political alternative with domestic legitimacy. Unlike other conflict settings, Venezuela’s long democratic tradition and organized civil society provide a foundation for institutional recovery if supported rather than sidelined.

The panel stressed that avoiding post-transition instability will require alignment between domestic leadership, international partners, and governance frameworks capable of managing energy revenues, migration pressures, and security risks without recreating patterns of state capture.

What Comes Next

The discussion made clear that Latin America is not entering a post-crisis moment, but a high-risk transition phase. Disrupting Russian and Chinese influence will demand credible economic incentives, the transparent governance of strategic sectors, and long-term investment grounded in the rule of law.

For the United States and Europe, the challenge is how to reengage without reproducing critical dependencies, enabling corruption, or undermining democratic legitimacy. The trajectory of Venezuela’s transition will serve as a test case for whether the Western Hemisphere can move toward a more resilient, rules-based order, or remain vulnerable to the next cycle of authoritarian capture.