High-risk criminal networks currently pose one of the most pressuring security threats in Europe, characterized by fluid, systematic, and profit-oriented international operations, especially in drug and human trafficking and migrant smuggling. The 2022 Russian aggression against Ukraine further complicated this security environment, providing fertile ground for state-sponsored organised crime, particularly as a tool to advance geopolitical objectives. Increasingly, the Kremlin has leveraged criminal networks to fund hybrid warfare, evade international sanctions, facilitate illicit trade, and destabilize foreign nations.
To address these pressing security issues, the Center for the Study of Democracy hosted the conference “Emerging Security Threats in Europe: High-Risk Criminal Networks, State-Sponsored Crime, and Sanctions Evasion” on 30 January 2025.
The event brought together leading experts from law enforcement, academia, and public policy from Bulgaria, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Spain, and Italy to engage in a high-level discussion on counteracting these emerging risks. Topics included the threats posed by high-risk criminal networks, the role of organized crime in hybrid warfare, challenges associated with sanctions evasion, and innovative strategies to combat these growing threats.
The opening remarks were delivered by Ruslan Stefanov, Program Director at the Center for the Study of Democracy, who emphasized the strategic significance of the Black Sea region in the context of sanction evasions and drew historical parallels with Bulgaria’s struggles during the 1990s Yugoslav wars and the subsequent embargo. “It took us two decades and significant efforts across the public, private sectors, and law enforcement, alongside partnerships with the EU, to address the fallout from organized crime networks that emerged during that period. However, today’s challenges are of a much greater scale.”, Stefanov stated.
Paul Lambert, Ambassador of Kingdom Belgium to Bulgaria continued with the growing risks that high-risk criminal groups - often leveraged by the Russian state - pose to Belgium’s critical infrastructure and the Northern Sea region. He cited cyber threats, espionage, and sabotage operations targeting submarine cables. “In the first 9 months of 2024, 110 Russian vessels were spotted in the Belgium coast of the Northern sea. That’s more than in the previous 12 months in 2023. These included military ships, research vessels and fishing vessels. Preventing espionage and sabotage of critical infrastructure, in the Northern sea has become a crucial focus of Belgium’s intelligence and security services.”
In his keynotes, Iliya Pulov, Senior Advisor at the Office of the Executive Director, EUROPOL, provided an in-depth analysis of the increasing complexity and internationalization of high-risk criminal networks. Referring to Europol’s latest report, mapping the most threatening criminal networks in the EU, he underscored the importance of continued intelligence gathering: “Today, we confront a vast array of ever-complex, transnational criminal activities. Organized crime groups have become more sophisticated, exploiting legal loopholes and disparities in law enforcement capabilities across Europe. Addressing these issues is an urgent task. Mapping and continuously updating our intelligence picture is the first step in understanding how high-risk criminal networks operate and is critical to effectively countering hybrid threats in an evolving criminal landscape.”
During the panel discussion, moderated by Dr. Atanas Rusev, Director, Security Program, Center for the Study of Democracy, experts delved deeper into the transnational nature of high-risk criminal networks, emphasizing the necessity of coordinated governmental, and law enforcement responses across borders, and international institutions. Dr. Nacer Lalam from the Institute for Advanced Studies at the French Ministry of Interiorshared insights from France’s recent experience with cyberattacks targeting the 2024 Summer Olympics, and Russian illicit financial flows, highlighting the challenges in adopting the right methodologies for studying and analyzing state-sponsored crime. Dr. Todor Galev, Director of Research at the Center for the Study of Democracy, addressed the Russian political elite’s systematic use of professional criminal services worldwide and detailed how these criminal networks have infiltrated the legal economy to launder money and serve geopolitical interests.
Amid these evolving complexities, Dr. Jelle Janssens, Associate Professor, Ghent University pointed out the need for clear definitions and robust public data collection to effectively study these issues. He also highlighted vulnerabilities in European security institutions, noting that while the EU traditionally separates internal and external security, Russia does not make such a distinction. Finally, Svetoslav Vasiliev, Head of the Cybercrime Department. National Investigation Service, concluded the discussion by outlining the gaps in Bulgaria’s legal framework regarding state-sponsored crime and hybrid threats. A key recommendation included fostering stronger collaborations between academia and public institutions to develop effective theoretical and legal frameworks that account for the evolving nature of state-sponsored crime, which has blurred traditional criminological conceptualizations.
Overall, participants emphasized the urgent need for enhanced cross-border cooperation, innovative policy frameworks, improved data collection and advanced technological tools to address the emerging challenges posed by the increasingly complex and transformative nature of organized crime to European critical infrastructure. They also concurred about the necessity of proactive measures to combat sanctions evasion and disrupt the financial channels sustaining criminal networks and hybrid warfare activities.
